Page 94 - 2022 Spring JSOM

Linear Regression as a Method to

Prioritize Humanitarian Efforts in Stability Operations

James Nicholson, MD, MMAS, MPH, MHA, MBA *; Mark J. Perry, PhD 2
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ABSTRACT
With a mandate to work by, with, and through host nation publicly available information provides a wealth of records to
partners, Special Operations Forces (SOF) often face the chal- make data-driven assessments for mutually beneficial shaping
lenge of pursuing humanitarian endeavors in the hopes of se- efforts in a stability operations framework. Additionally, this
curing access to a specific population and mapping the human paper will highlight how data can be analyzed without a reli-
terrain. Likewise, should limitations in the rules of engage- ance on statistical software that is unlikely to be present in the
ment (ROE) shift incentives from lethal to non-lethal effects, tactical environment.
commanders must find unique ways to exert influence on the
operational environment. However, with inevitable resource Background
constraints such as money and time, it can be exceedingly According to the Non-Governmental Organization (NGO)
difficult to determine which humanitarian project to under- Coordination Committee for Iraq (NCCI), as of December
take, especially in a population whose needs are multifaceted. 2019, there were 71 national NGOs and 106 international
Linear regression, a statistical tool available within the stan- NGOs in Iraq. With the panoply of agencies operating in the
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dard Microsoft Excel package on government computers, per- humanitarian space, why would military forces seek to dupli-
mits the modeling of predictive outcomes between a number cate similar efforts? Within an Army construct, Army Doctrine
of independent variables against a dependent variable. This Publication (ADP) 3-0, Unified Land Operations, states that
allows the determination of significance and effect for each setting the conditions for favorable conflict resolution occur
independent variable, which can facilitate a thoughtful recom- by seizing, retaining, and exploiting the initiative to gain and
mendation to commanders for project selection. Using Iraq as maintain a position of relative advantage. This is executed
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an example, publicly available information (PAI) provides a through decisive action, which transpires in combat theaters
wealth of records to make data-driven assessments for mutu- as offensive, defensive, or stability operations. Furthermore,
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ally beneficial shaping efforts in a stability operations frame- the core competencies of combined arms maneuver and wide
work. Additionally, this paper will highlight how data can be area security act as the means through which unified land op-
analyzed without a reliance on statistical software that is un- erations are conducted. Thus, stability operations serve as a
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likely to be present in the tactical environment. process that contributes to wide area security and facilitates
the retention of initiative on the battlefield.
Keywords: humanitarian; stability operations; linear regression
Joint Chiefs of Staff Joint Publication (JP) 4-02, Health Service
Support, clarifies the medical aspect of stability operations as
efforts to establish the medical support necessary to sustain
Introduction
the population until local civil services are restored. This cor-
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With a mandate to work by, with, and through host nation responds to JP 3-29, Foreign Humanitarian Assistance, which
partners, Special Operations Forces often face the challenge of states that military forces may be used to provide humanitar-
pursuing humanitarian endeavors in the hopes of securing ac- ian assistance when there is no appropriate civilian alternative
cess to a specific population and mapping the human terrain. and where a critical humanitarian need exists. Therefore, in
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Likewise, should limitations in the rules of engagement shift the semi-permissive environments in which Special Operations
incentives from lethal to nonlethal effects, commanders must Forces operate, there may be no other resources with the req-
find unique ways to exert influence on the operational envi- uisite freedom of maneuver to engage in humanitarian endeav-
ronment. However, with inevitable resource constraints, such ors until security can be sufficiently restored for humanitarian
as money and time, it can be exceedingly difficult to deter- agency operations.
mine which humanitarian project to undertake, especially in a
population whose needs are multifaceted. Linear regression, a
statistical tool available within the standard Microsoft Excel Methods
package on government computers, permits the modeling of Publicly available information provides a wide collection of
predictive outcomes between a number of independent vari- humanitarian and attack data. For example, what if we hoped
ables against a dependent variable. This allows the determina- to determine which humanitarian issue best correlated with
tion of statistical significance and effect for each independent terrorist attacks in Iraq in 2018? If the number of terrorist at-
variable, which can facilitate a thoughtful recommendation to tacks is the dependent variable (i.e., the outcome we are seeking
commanders for project selection. Using Iraq as an example, to reach), then we can mathematically model the relationship
*Correspondence to nicholsonlt@msn.com
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1 LTC James Nicholson is group surgeon with 5th Special Forces Group (Airborne), Fort Campbell, KY. LTC (Ret) Mark J. Perry is an associate
professor at Baylor University, Waco, TX.
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